Sport Academy Kairat vs Arys Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.90 expected goals for Sport Academy Kairat and 0.53 for Arys, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Sport Academy Kairat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws roughly 7% of the time.

Model pick

Sport Academy Kairat to Win

92.7% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

3.90 – 0.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sport Academy Kairat win93%

Draw5%

Arys win2%

Double chance 1X

98%

Double chance 12

95%

Double chance X2

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

3–011.8%
4–011.5%
2–09.1%
5–09.0%
3–16.2%

Why the model likes this

Arys away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Academy Kairat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 93% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.90 goals for Sport Academy Kairat and 0.53 for Arys, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 40%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Sport Academy Kairat

Arys

2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Khan Tengri · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	18	16	1	1	44	49
2	Sport Academy Kairat	18	13	4	1	46	43
3	Turan Turkistan	18	12	2	4	24	38
4	Akademiya Ontustik	18	9	3	6	5	30
5	Astana II	18	8	2	8	-4	26
6	Jaiyq	18	8	2	8	-5	26
7	Ekibastuz	18	7	5	6	-7	26
8	Taraz	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Kaspij Aktau 2	18	7	3	8	-4	24
10	Khan Tengri	18	5	3	10	-13	18
11	Aktobe Jas	18	4	5	9	-29	17
12	Arys	18	4	2	12	-19	14
13	Yelimay Semey 2	18	3	3	12	-18	12
14	Tobol 2	18	2	4	12	-20	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.