Stayen · Referee Anthony Letellier, Belgium · Analysis updated 03:47 UTC
St. Truiden vs Lommel United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.52 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives St. Truiden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
St. Truiden to Win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Truiden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for St. Truiden and 1.52 for Lommel United, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
St. Truiden to Win is the headline pick at 46% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
St. Truiden
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 0-0 (D)
Lommel United
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Antwerp | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Zulte Waregem | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Charleroi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Genk | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Standard Liege | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | KVC Westerlo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.