Poland · III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 315:00

11

Saturday, 15 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:45 UTC

Stilon Gorzów vs Polonia Nysa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Stilon Gorzów and 1.16 for Polonia Nysa, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Stilon Gorzów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Stilon Gorzów to Win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Stilon Gorzów win56%
Draw22%
Polonia Nysa win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams to score59%

Correct score

  • 1–110.0%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 2–08.5%
  • 3–16.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Polonia Nysa away threat

    Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Stilon Gorzów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.97 goals for Stilon Gorzów and 1.16 for Polonia Nysa, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Stilon Gorzów

    Polonia Nysa

    • 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)
    • 2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 2-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    III Liga - Group 3 table

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.