Stade de la Meinau · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Strasbourg vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.99 for Lille, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Lille to Win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–35.7%
Why the model likes this
Strasbourg home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lille away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Strasbourg and 1.99 for Lille, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Strasbourg
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-20T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-7 (L)
Lille
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auxerre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Angers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Lorient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Nice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Marseille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Paris FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Paris Saint Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Toulouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Estac Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.