Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.28 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Strasbourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Strasbourg to Win

50.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.84 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Strasbourg win51%

Draw23%

Toulouse win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.6%
1–08.1%
2–07.5%
1–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Strasbourg home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toulouse away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Strasbourg

2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 3-4 (L)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-20T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-7 (L)

Toulouse

2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T15:15:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2025-12-06T18:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2025-03-16T16:15:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2025-01-12T16:15:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2024-04-07T13:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 0-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2023-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2023-01-29T14:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2022-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 2-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2020-02-05T18:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 1-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
2019-12-07T19:00:00.000Z · Strasbourg 4-2 Toulouse (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.