Marijampole Football Arena · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Suduva Marijampole and 0.65 for Panevėžys, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Suduva Marijampole the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws roughly 32% of the time.
Model pick
Suduva Marijampole to Win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 2–014.1%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–09.1%
Why the model likes this
Suduva Marijampole home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Suduva Marijampole to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 21% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Suduva Marijampole and 0.65 for Panevėžys, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Suduva Marijampole
- 2026-08-09T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Banga · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-20T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-29T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-21T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-1 (W)
Panevėžys
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-29T15:45:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 2-1 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2026-04-25T11:15:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 1-0 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2026-02-22T11:00:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 0-0 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2025-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 0-2 Panevėžys (Cup)
- 2025-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 1-1 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2025-07-07T16:00:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 2-1 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 0-0 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2025-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 0-2 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2024-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 0-0 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
- 2024-06-26T15:00:00.000Z · Suduva Marijampole 1-3 Panevėžys (A Lyga)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 37 |
| 2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Banga | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -17 | 23 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 22 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -28 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.