Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.18 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Sunderland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Sunderland to Win

49.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sunderland win50%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.6%
1–09.5%
2–08.1%
1–26.6%

Why the model likes this

Sunderland home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nottingham Forest away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sunderland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Sunderland and 1.18 for Nottingham Forest, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Sunderland

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-4 (L)

Nottingham Forest

2026-08-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.