Tarbes vs Onet-le-Château Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Tarbes and 1.11 for Onet-le-Château, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Tarbes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws roughly 34% of the time.

Model pick

Tarbes to Win

66.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Tarbes win66%

Draw18%

Onet-le-Château win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–08.5%
1–17.8%
3–17.7%
1–07.0%

Why the model likes this

Tarbes home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarbes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Tarbes and 1.11 for Onet-le-Château, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Tarbes

2026-07-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs PAU · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Blagnac · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Onet-le-Château · 6-1 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lège-Cap-Ferret · 4-4 (D)
2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pau II · 1-0 (W)

Onet-le-Château

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tarbes	26	14	8	4	26	47
2	Canet Roussillon	26	12	9	5	15	45
3	Colomiers	26	13	6	7	5	43
4	Onet-le-Château	26	11	6	9	0	39
5	Pau II	26	10	7	9	6	37
6	Anglet Genets	26	12	7	7	13	37
7	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	26	9	9	8	2	36
8	Toulouse II	26	9	6	11	4	33
9	Castanet	26	8	8	10	-5	32
10	Blagnac	26	8	8	10	1	29
11	Lège-Cap-Ferret	26	6	10	10	-15	28
12	SAG Cestas	26	6	10	10	-16	28
13	Agde	26	6	6	14	-20	24
14	Alberes Argelès	26	5	6	15	-16	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.