Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.60 expected goals for Tartu Welco and 1.27 for Nõmme United II, a combined total of 4.87. That distribution gives Tartu Welco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws roughly 20% of the time.

Model pick

Tartu Welco to Win

79.8% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

3.60 – 1.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Tartu Welco win80%

Draw11%

Nõmme United II win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals71%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

3–17.6%
4–16.8%
2–16.3%
3–06.0%
4–05.4%

Why the model likes this

Tartu Welco home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Welco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 11% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.60 goals for Tartu Welco and 1.27 for Nõmme United II, a combined 4.87 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 69%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Tartu Welco

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kose · 8-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rumori Calcio II · 12-0 (W)

Nõmme United II

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	23	15	3	5	35	48
2	Viimsi	23	12	5	6	20	41
3	Flora II	23	11	4	8	14	37
4	Elva	23	10	4	9	4	34
5	Tallinna Kalev	23	9	5	9	2	32
6	Maardu	23	9	5	9	-14	32
7	FCI Levadia II	23	10	1	12	0	31
8	FC Tallinn	23	6	6	11	-22	24
9	Nõmme United II	22	6	5	11	-12	23
10	Nõmme Kalju II	22	5	4	13	-27	19

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.