BMO Field · Referee I. Elfath · Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Toronto FC and 1.19 for Atlanta United FC, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Toronto FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Toronto FC to Win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.6%
Why the model likes this
Toronto FC home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlanta United FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toronto FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Toronto FC and 1.19 for Atlanta United FC, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Toronto FC
- 2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 0-0 (D)
Atlanta United FC
- 2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-23T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-18T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.