Udinese vs Napoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Udinese and 1.42 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Napoli to Win

45.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Udinese win29%

Draw27%

Napoli win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.6%
0–111.7%
1–28.9%
1–08.9%
0–28.3%

Why the model likes this

Udinese home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Udinese and 1.42 for Napoli, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Udinese

2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-3 (D)

Napoli

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 6-2 (W)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrarese · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.