Mexico · Liga MX U21 · Regular Season - 515:00

15:00 UTC

Sunday, 23 August 2026

· Analysis updated 01:57 UTC

UNAM Pumas U21 vs Necaxa U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for UNAM Pumas U21 and 0.87 for Necaxa U21, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives UNAM Pumas U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

UNAM Pumas U21 to Win

54.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

UNAM Pumas U21 win54%
Draw25%
Necaxa U21 win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams to score46%

Correct score

  • 1–013.6%
  • 1–111.9%
  • 2–010.8%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 0–08.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates UNAM Pumas U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.58 goals for UNAM Pumas U21 and 0.87 for Necaxa U21, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

  • Model confidence

    UNAM Pumas U21 to Win is the headline pick at 54% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

UNAM Pumas U21

    Necaxa U21

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Liga MX U21 table

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.