Stadionul Ion Oblemenco · Referee M. Marcenaro · Analysis updated 05:32 UTC
Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova and 1.10 for Levski Sofia, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Levski Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Levski Sofia or Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–27.4%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 33% / 30% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 1.10 for Levski Sofia, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Levski Sofia or Draw is the headline pick at 68% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Universitatea Craiova
Levski Sofia
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.