Valencia vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Valencia and 1.50 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Valencia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Valencia or Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Valencia win40%

Draw24%

Real Sociedad win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–18.7%
1–28.1%
1–07.2%
0–16.7%

Why the model likes this

Valencia home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Sociedad away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valencia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Valencia and 1.50 for Real Sociedad, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Valencia

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 3-0 (W)

Real Sociedad

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	29

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.