· Referee P. Gudmundsson · Analysis updated 03:00 UTC
Vikingur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.54 expected goals for Vikingur Reykjavik and 0.89 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Vikingur Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws roughly 15% of the time.
Model pick
Vikingur Reykjavik to Win
85.2% probability
Expected goals
3.54 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.8%
- 3–17.8%
- 4–07.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–16.9%
Why the model likes this
Vikingur Reykjavik home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vikingur Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 9% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.54 goals for Vikingur Reykjavik and 0.89 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 57%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Vikingur Reykjavik
- 2026-08-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 45 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 39 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 37 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 25 |
| 6 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | FH hafnarfjordur | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -10 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 15 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -28 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.