Villarreal vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.28 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.

Model pick

Villarreal to Win

62.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Villarreal win62%

Draw19%

Real Sociedad win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–17.8%
3–17.4%
2–07.3%
1–06.1%

Why the model likes this

Villarreal home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Sociedad away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Villarreal and 1.28 for Real Sociedad, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Villarreal

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 3-0 (W)

Real Sociedad

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.