World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying Round19:00

10

Thursday, 16 July 2026

Dila

San Marino Stadium · Referee M. Bejtullahu · Analysis updated 04:14 UTC

Virtus vs Dila Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Virtus and 3.00 for Dila, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Dila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws roughly 23% of the time.

Model pick

Dila to Win

77.4% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.00 – 3.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Virtus win9%
Draw13%
Dila win77%

Double chance 1X

23%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams to score60%

Correct score

  • 0–28.2%
  • 0–38.2%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 1–38.2%
  • 0–46.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Dila away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Dila to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.00 goals for Virtus and 3.00 for Dila, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 60%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Virtus

    Dila

    • 2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Limassol · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-07-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 0-4 (L)
    • 2026-07-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus · 0-1 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.