Wealdstone vs Carlisle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Wealdstone and 2.00 for Carlisle, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Carlisle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Carlisle or Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.75 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Wealdstone win34%

Draw21%

Carlisle win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.2%
1–28.2%
2–17.2%
2–27.2%
1–35.5%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Carlisle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Wealdstone and 2.00 for Carlisle, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Carlisle or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Wealdstone

Carlisle

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Harrogate Town	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	AFC Hornchurch	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Sutton Utd	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Southend	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	Hartlepool	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Forest Green	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Boreham Wood	2	1	1	0	2	4
8	AFC Fylde	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Gateshead	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	Boston United	2	1	0	1	1	3
11	Worthing	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Eastleigh	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Aldershot Town	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Kidderminster Harriers	2	1	0	1	-2	3
15	Yeovil Town	2	0	2	0	0	2
16	Tamworth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Carlisle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Scunthorpe	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Wealdstone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	FC Halifax Town	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Altrincham	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Barrow	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Solihull Moors	2	0	0	2	-5	0
24	Woking	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.