Western United II vs Port Melbourne Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Western United II and 1.18 for Port Melbourne, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Western United II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Western United II or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Western United II win44%

Draw26%

Port Melbourne win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Western United II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Port Melbourne away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Western United II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Western United II and 1.18 for Port Melbourne, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Western United II

2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Knights · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-24T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick City · 0-5 (L)
2026-07-19T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulleen Lions · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-10T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick Juventus FC · 4-5 (L)
2026-07-05T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory II · 3-2 (W)

Port Melbourne

2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Knights · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Manningham United Blues · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-18T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Srbija · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-13T04:00:00.000Z · Western United II 0-0 Port Melbourne (Victoria NPL 2)
2026-03-06T08:30:00.000Z · Western United II 3-2 Port Melbourne (Victoria NPL 2)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.