Aalesund vs Tromso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Aalesund and 2.39 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Tromso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.

Model pick

Tromso to Win

63.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.22 – 2.39

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Aalesund win18%

Draw19%

Tromso win63%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–29.4%
1–17.9%
0–27.7%
1–37.5%
0–16.4%

Why the model likes this

Tromso away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tromso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 18% / 19% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Aalesund and 2.39 for Tromso, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Aalesund

Tromso

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aalesund · 6-2 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	31	41
2	Viking	17	13	1	3	23	40
3	Tromso	16	10	4	2	15	34
4	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	2	26
5	Molde	16	7	3	6	5	24
6	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	3	24
7	Brann	16	7	1	8	6	22
8	Sarpsborg 08 FF	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Ham-Kam	16	6	4	6	-3	22
10	Valerenga	16	6	2	8	-6	20
11	Fredrikstad	16	6	2	8	-10	20
12	KFUM Oslo	17	5	4	8	-8	19
13	Sandefjord	16	4	3	9	-9	15
14	Kristiansund BK	16	4	3	9	-11	15
15	Aalesund	16	2	8	6	-14	14
16	Start	17	2	4	11	-22	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.