Aalesund vs Tromso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.85 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Tromso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tromso win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aalesund home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tromso away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Aalesund win30%

Draw23%

Tromso win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.2%
2–17.1%
0–17.0%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Aalesund

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KFUM Oslo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Start · 2-0 (W)

Tromso

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 2-6 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2026-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 1-1 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2025-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 1-0 Tromso (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 2-1 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2023-06-11T15:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 2-3 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2022-11-13T16:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 2-2 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2022-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 2-2 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2017-08-20T16:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 2-3 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2017-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · Aalesund 3-1 Tromso (Eliteserien)
2016-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · Aalesund 2-1 Tromso (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	22	17	2	3	36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	22	17	2	3	36	53
3	Tromso	22	11	6	5	11	39
4	Molde	22	11	4	7	12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	10	4	8	9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	-1	33
7	Brann	22	9	2	11	5	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	-7	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	7	7	8	-3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	8	4	10	-9	28
11	Ham-Kam	22	7	5	10	-13	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	-6	24
13	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	-10	23
14	Aalesund	22	4	9	9	-15	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	5	4	13	-21	19
16	Start	22	4	4	14	-24	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tromso win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.