Portugal · Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 217:00

01

Saturday, 15 August 2026

Estádio Municipal do Fontelo · Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC

Academico Viseu vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Academico Viseu and 2.00 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Academico Viseu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Academico Viseu or Draw

60.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Academico Viseu win40%
Draw21%
Santa Clara win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Both teams to score75%

Correct score

  • 1–17.3%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 2–17.3%
  • 2–27.3%
  • 1–34.9%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Academico Viseu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.00 goals for Academico Viseu and 2.00 for Santa Clara, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

  • Model confidence

    Academico Viseu or Draw is the headline pick at 60% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Academico Viseu

    Santa Clara

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Primeira Liga table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Sporting CP211014
      2FC Porto110023
      3GIL Vicente110013
      4Maritimo110013
      5Arouca110013
      6Estrela202002
      7SC Braga101001
      8Nacional101001
      9Academico Viseu101001
      10Famalicao101001
      11Estoril101001
      12Santa Clara101001
      13Moreirense101001
      14Benfica101001
      15Alverca2011-21
      16Rio Ave1001-10
      17Casa Pia1001-10
      18Vitória SC2002-20

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.