Estádio Municipal do Fontelo · Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Academico Viseu vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Academico Viseu and 2.00 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Academico Viseu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Academico Viseu home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Clara away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Academico Viseu
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-2 (D)
Santa Clara
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 0-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-04T18:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 1-1 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
- 2023-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 0-2 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
- 2018-05-12T10:15:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 2-1 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
- 2018-01-06T16:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 0-0 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
- 2017-03-26T16:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 2-1 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
- 2016-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Academico Viseu 2-1 Santa Clara (Segunda Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.