Johan Cruijff Arena · Referee A. Bos · Analysis updated 21:53 UTC
Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Ajax and 1.16 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
Ajax to Win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.6%
Why the model likes this
Ajax home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Ajax and 1.16 for Heerenveen, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Ajax
- 2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Shelbourne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 4-1 (W)
Heerenveen
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.