Johan Cruijff Arena · Referee Alex Bos, Netherlands · Analysis updated 14:47 UTC
Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Ajax and 1.15 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
Ajax
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
Heerenveen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2026-05-17T12:30:00.000Z · Ajax 0-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2025-11-01T15:30:00.000Z · Ajax 1-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2025-01-19T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 2-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2024-08-11T14:45:00.000Z · Ajax 1-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2024-02-11T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 2-3 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-11-05T15:45:00.000Z · Ajax 4-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-03-12T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 4-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · Ajax 5-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-05-11T18:00:00.000Z · Ajax 5-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.