· Analysis updated 04:21 UTC
Arys vs Tobol 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Arys and 1.80 for Tobol 2, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Arys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Arys or Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 3–15.4%
Why the model likes this
Arys home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Arys and 1.80 for Tobol 2, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Arys
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Khan Tengri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 0-4 (L)
Tobol 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 49 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 46 | 43 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 38 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Astana II | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 26 |
| 7 | Ekibastuz | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -7 | 26 |
| 8 | Taraz | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Khan Tengri | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | Aktobe Jas | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -29 | 17 |
| 12 | Arys | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -19 | 14 |
| 13 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -18 | 12 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.