Arys vs Tobol 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Arys and 1.85 for Tobol 2, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Arys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arys win

46.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.19 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arys home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tobol 2 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for Arys and 1.85 for Tobol 2, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arys win46%

Draw20%

Tobol 2 win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–17.8%
2–27.2%
1–17.2%
1–26.6%
3–15.7%

Recent form

Arys

2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaiyq · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademiya Ontustik · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe Jas · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspij Aktau 2 · 2-1 (W)

Tobol 2

2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ekibastuz · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Academy Kairat · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Taraz · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Tengri · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	26	21	2	3	56	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	26	19	6	1	57	63
3	Turan Turkistan	26	18	3	5	33	57
4	Akademiya Ontustik	26	13	4	9	4	43
5	Astana II	26	12	3	11	2	39
6	Taraz	26	10	7	9	4	37
7	Arys	26	10	3	13	-11	33
8	Jaiyq	26	9	5	12	-9	32
9	Khan Tengri	26	9	5	12	-13	32
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	26	8	4	14	-12	28
11	Ekibastuz	26	7	6	13	-25	27
12	Aktobe Jas	26	6	6	14	-35	24
13	Tobol 2	26	6	5	15	-13	23
14	Yelimay Semey 2	26	3	3	20	-38	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arys win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.