Barcelona vs Racing Santander Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Barcelona and 1.18 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Barcelona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Barcelona or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Barcelona win44%

Draw26%

Racing Santander win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Barcelona home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Santander away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 5 meetings.

Recent form

Barcelona

2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 1-3 (L)

Racing Santander

2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-15T20:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 2-0 Racing Santander (Copa del Rey)
2012-03-11T17:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 2-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 3-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-01-22T19:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 3-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2010-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 3-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.