Barcelona vs Racing Santander Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Barcelona and 1.15 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Barcelona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Barcelona win

72.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.88 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barcelona home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Santander away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Barcelona win73%

Draw15%

Racing Santander win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–18.5%
3–18.1%
2–07.4%
3–07.1%
1–15.9%

Recent form

Barcelona

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 7-2 (W)
2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 5-1 (W)

Racing Santander

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-7 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-15T20:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 2-0 Racing Santander (Copa del Rey)
2012-03-11T17:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 2-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 3-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-01-22T19:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 3-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2010-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Barcelona 3-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Barcelona win, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.