Benfica vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Benfica and 1.18 for CF Os Belenenses, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Benfica or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Benfica win44%

Draw26%

CF Os Belenenses win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Benfica home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Os Belenenses away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Benfica and 1.18 for CF Os Belenenses, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Benfica

2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)

CF Os Belenenses

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Caldas · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-5 (L)
2026-07-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 5-1 CF Os Belenenses (Friendlies Clubs)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.