· Analysis updated 12:35 UTC
Benfica vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Benfica and 1.00 for CF Os Belenenses, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CF Os Belenenses away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Benfica and 1.00 for CF Os Belenenses, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Benfica
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
CF Os Belenenses
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs União Santarém · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 5-1 CF Os Belenenses (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.