Toughsheet Community Stadium · Referee Adam Herczeg, England · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Bolton vs Preston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bolton and 1.12 for Preston, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Bolton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Bolton or Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–08.0%
Why the model likes this
Bolton home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Preston away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.20 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.25 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.20 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.06 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 8.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 7.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.09 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.77 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.00 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Bolton
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
Preston
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bradford · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · Bolton 2-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · Bolton 2-0 Preston (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-07-20T18:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-0 Preston (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2018-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Bolton 2-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2018-03-03T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-3 Preston (Championship)
- 2017-11-17T19:45:00.000Z · Bolton 0-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2016-03-12T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2015-10-31T18:00:00.000Z · Bolton 0-0 Preston (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.