Toughsheet Community Stadium · Referee Adam Herczeg, England · Analysis updated 16:14 UTC
Bolton vs Preston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bolton and 1.12 for Preston, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Bolton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolton home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Preston away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–08.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 46.9% | 48.8% | 2.05 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 42.5% | 44.1% | 2.27 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 73.2% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.25 | 28.8% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 73.0% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.3% | 70.4% | 1.42 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 56.7% | 55.9% | 1.79 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.50 | 26.8% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.77 | 53.1% | 51.2% | 1.95 | -1.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.8% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bolton
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 2-3 (L)
Preston
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · Bolton 2-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · Bolton 2-0 Preston (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-07-20T18:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-0 Preston (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2018-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Bolton 2-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2018-03-03T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-3 Preston (Championship)
- 2017-11-17T19:45:00.000Z · Bolton 0-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2016-03-12T15:00:00.000Z · Bolton 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2015-10-31T18:00:00.000Z · Bolton 0-0 Preston (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.