Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Brighton and 1.24 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Brighton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Brighton or Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Brighton win44%

Draw25%

Chelsea win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.6%
2–19.1%
0–17.8%
1–27.4%

Why the model likes this

Brighton home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brighton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Brighton and 1.24 for Chelsea, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Brighton

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)

Chelsea

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-21T19:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-02-14T20:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · Brighton 2-1 Chelsea (FA Cup)
2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 2-4 Chelsea (Premier League)
2024-05-15T18:45:00.000Z · Brighton 1-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-12-03T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 2-3 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · Brighton 0-1 Chelsea (League Cup)
2023-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-4 Chelsea (Premier League - Summer Series)
2023-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 2-1 Chelsea (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.