Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.24 expected goals for Brighton and 1.43 for Chelsea, a combined total of 4.67. That distribution gives Brighton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Brighton win

72.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.24 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Brighton home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelsea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Brighton win73%

Draw14%

Chelsea win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

3–17.6%
2–17.0%
4–16.2%
3–25.4%
3–05.3%

Recent form

Brighton

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 1-1 (D)

Chelsea

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-4 Chelsea (Premier League)
2026-04-21T19:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-02-14T20:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · Brighton 2-1 Chelsea (FA Cup)
2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 2-4 Chelsea (Premier League)
2024-05-15T18:45:00.000Z · Brighton 1-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-12-03T14:00:00.000Z · Brighton 2-3 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · Brighton 0-1 Chelsea (League Cup)
2023-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · Brighton 3-4 Chelsea (Premier League - Summer Series)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brighton win, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.