Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.56 for Manchester City, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Chelsea or Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Chelsea win41%

Draw23%

Manchester City win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–18.6%
1–28.0%
2–26.7%
1–06.6%

Why the model likes this

Chelsea home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Chelsea

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-2 (L)

Manchester City

2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs K-League Stars · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City (FA Cup)
2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
2026-01-04T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
2025-01-25T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
2024-08-18T15:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City (Premier League)
2024-08-03T21:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-4 Manchester City (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-04-20T16:15:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City (FA Cup)
2024-02-17T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
2023-11-12T16:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 4-4 Manchester City (Premier League)
2023-05-21T15:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.