Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.79 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Manchester City to Win

51.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Chelsea win26%

Draw23%

Manchester City win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.8%
1–29.7%
0–19.0%
0–28.1%
2–16.5%

Why the model likes this

Chelsea home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Chelsea

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-2 (L)

Manchester City

2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs K-League Stars · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City (FA Cup)
2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
2026-01-04T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
2025-01-25T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
2024-08-18T15:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City (Premier League)
2024-08-03T21:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 2-4 Manchester City (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-04-20T16:15:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City (FA Cup)
2024-02-17T17:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
2023-11-12T16:30:00.000Z · Chelsea 4-4 Manchester City (Premier League)
2023-05-21T15:00:00.000Z · Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.