Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.97 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Cruzeiro to Win

52.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Cruzeiro win52%

Draw25%

Atletico-MG win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.2%
1–111.9%
2–09.7%
2–19.5%
0–07.6%

Why the model likes this

Atletico-MG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.97 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Cruzeiro

Atletico-MG

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.