Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.98 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cruzeiro win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cruzeiro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.98 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Cruzeiro win52%

Draw25%

Atletico-MG win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.2%
1–111.9%
2–09.7%
2–19.5%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Cruzeiro

2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)

Atletico-MG

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	-5	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	-10	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	-5	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	-31	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cruzeiro win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.