Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.00 for Aluminij, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Dinamo Tirana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Dinamo Tirana or Draw

72.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Tirana win45%

Draw28%

Aluminij win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.9%
1–112.9%
0–09.5%
0–19.5%
2–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Dinamo Tirana home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tirana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.00 for Aluminij, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Dinamo Tirana

2026-08-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astana · 4-1 (W)

Aluminij

2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nafta · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 3-0 Aluminij (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-07-23T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Tirana 1-1 Aluminij (UEFA Europa Conference League)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.