Arena Egnatia · Referee G. Kabakov · Analysis updated 21:19 UTC
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 3.00 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Shamrock Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws roughly 23% of the time.
Model pick
Shamrock Rovers to Win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–28.2%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shamrock Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 3.00 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 60%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Shamrock Rovers to Win is the headline pick at 77% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Shamrock Rovers
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.