Arena Egnatia · Referee G. Kabakov · Analysis updated 11:20 UTC
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1.26 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Egnatia Rrogozhinë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shamrock Rovers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Egnatia Rrogozhinë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1.26 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 55.4% | 56.3% | 1.78 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.05 | 30.6% | 31.2% | 3.21 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 55.6% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.3% | 68.8% | 1.45 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.12 | 44.1% | 43.8% | 2.28 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.3% | 25.0% | 4.00 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 44.6% | 43.7% | 2.29 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.1% | 75.0% | 1.33 | -1.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)
Shamrock Rovers
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Waterford · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St Patrick's Athl. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.