Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Analysis updated 02:58 UTC
Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Estoril and 0.99 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Estoril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Estoril to Win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.4%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–08.9%
Why the model likes this
Estoril home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 3-0 (W)
Casa Pia
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T20:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-10-03T19:15:00.000Z · Estoril 2-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-29T19:30:00.000Z · Estoril 3-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-15T20:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-08T19:15:00.000Z · Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-11-10T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 4-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-05-21T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 2-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-01-16T19:00:00.000Z · Estoril 2-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-04-23T19:15:00.000Z · Estoril 1-1 Casa Pia (Segunda Liga)
- 2020-12-30T18:00:00.000Z · Estoril 2-0 Casa Pia (Segunda Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.