Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Estoril and 0.99 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Estoril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Estoril to Win

45.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Estoril win46%

Draw27%

Casa Pia win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.9%
1–112.8%
0–09.4%
0–19.2%
2–08.9%

Why the model likes this

Estoril home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estoril to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Estoril and 0.99 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Estoril

2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 3-0 (W)

Casa Pia

2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.