Everton vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Everton and 2.05 for Lille, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Lille to Win

45.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.75 – 2.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win34%

Draw21%

Lille win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.2%
1–18.0%
2–27.2%
2–17.0%
1–35.6%

Why the model likes this

Lille away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Everton and 2.05 for Lille, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Everton

Lille

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 6-3 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.