Hill Dickinson Stadium · Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Everton vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Everton and 2.05 for Lille, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lille win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Everton home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lille away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Everton and 2.05 for Lille, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Lille
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lille win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.