Estadio Municipal de Famalicao · Referee M. Nogueira · Analysis updated 21:18 UTC
Famalicao vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.15 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Famalicao or Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Famalicao to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Famalicao and 1.15 for Maritimo, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Famalicao or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Famalicao
Maritimo
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.