Estádio Municipal de Famalicão · Referee Miguel Nogueira, Portugal · Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Famalicao vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.90 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Famalicao win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Famalicao home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maritimo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 51.4% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 74.7% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.76 | 53.1% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 4.55 | 20.5% | 21.2% | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.9% | 54.4% | 1.84 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 75.0% | 1.33 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 78.9% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.6% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.05 | 46.1% | 45.6% | 2.19 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.70 | 25.3% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.90 | 48.6% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 25.0% | 4.00 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Famalicao
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-0 (D)
Maritimo
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T19:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-2 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-22T14:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-02-20T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-03-21T17:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 4-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-11-07T18:00:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · Famalicao 3-3 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-01-19T17:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Famalicao win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.