Ozon Arena · Referee Sergey Karasev, Russia · Analysis updated 04:31 UTC
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.93 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.
Model pick
FC Krasnodar to Win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.8%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.0%
Why the model likes this
Akhmat away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Krasnodar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.93 for Akhmat, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.56 | Marathonbet |
| Match Result | Draw | 4.30 | Marathonbet |
| Match Result | Away | 5.95 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.19 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.96 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 1.75 | 1.25 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 1.75 | 3.50 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 2.0 | 1.31 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 2.0 | 3.16 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 2.25 | 1.51 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 2.25 | 2.43 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.12 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 2.75 | 1.87 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 2.75 | 1.86 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.69 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.39 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 1.0 | 1.00 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 1.0 | 10.25 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 1.25 | 1.09 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 1.25 | 5.45 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 3.0 | 2.17 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 3.0 | 1.62 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.85 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.11 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 3.25 | 2.42 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 3.25 | 1.49 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 3.75 | 3.18 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 3.75 | 1.28 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 4.0 | 4.20 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 4.0 | 1.16 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 4.25 | 4.50 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 4.25 | 1.13 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 4.75 | 6.10 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 4.75 | 1.06 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 5.0 | 8.60 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 5.0 | 1.01 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Over 5.5 | 9.20 | Marathonbet |
| Goals | Under 5.5 | 1.00 | Marathonbet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.78 | Marathonbet |
| BTTS | No | 1.93 | Marathonbet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | Marathonbet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.24 | Marathonbet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 2.51 | Marathonbet |
Recent form
FC Krasnodar
Akhmat
- 2026-08-15T17:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Zenit | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Rubin | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Dynamo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Rodina Moskva | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Akron | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Fakel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.