Ozon Arena · Referee Sergey Karasev, Russia · Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.79 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
FC Krasnodar to Win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.1%
Why the model likes this
Akhmat away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Krasnodar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.79 for Akhmat, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
FC Krasnodar
Akhmat
- 2026-08-15T17:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Zenit | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Rubin | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Dynamo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Rodina Moskva | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Akron | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Fakel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.